Global Ocean Schedule Reliability Falls to 27% as Delays Reach Six Days

Shippers entered the final quarter with less schedule certainty and fewer days of buffer: Xeneta measured global on-time arrivals at 27% in September, while average vessel delay reached 6.0 days. Reliability fell for a fourth straight month, down 2 percentage points from August and level with February’s low. Average delay also rose for a fourth month, adding 2.4 days since the start of Q2.

The scorecard links continued weakness on Asia-connected trades to the aftereffects of powerful typhoons that struck from July through early September, alongside existing operating constraints. Disruption can persist after the weather event and affect ports far from where it began, leaving little reason to expect a firm reliability floor in October.

Asia routes bear the sharpest deterioration

Far East to Europe fell to just 4% on-time, with an average delay of 9.9 days across vessels. That was the lane’s weakest result since September 2021, when reliability reached 3%. Far East to North America remained at 20% on-time, but average delay grew by 0.8 days from August to 6.9 days.

Freight costs on the China–US West Coast lane have also climbed. Xeneta’s spot market average stood at $7,717 per FEU in early October, more than four times the September 2025 level of $1,778 and 8% above the start of September 2026. Long-term rates were $3,649 per FEU on 1 October, up 26% month over month. Xeneta points to bunker costs, typhoon disruption and a strong peak season as contributing pressures; its analysis of transpacific rates describes the combined effect.

There were a few brighter results. South America’s West and East Coast trades were the only routes to improve both on-time performance and delay in September. Reliability gained 10 and 12 percentage points respectively, while average delays fell by as much as 1.0 day. The improvement comes as Brazil approaches its peak export season, when limited spare time in schedules could make further disruption harder to absorb.

Europe to North America led the trade rankings for a second consecutive month. On-time arrivals rose 8 percentage points month over month to 49%, the route’s best result since August 2025. Its 1.9-day average delay was the lowest among the trades tracked.

Carrier results narrow, but delays rise across the board

Every carrier recorded its highest average delay of the past 12 months in September. Four also reached a 12-month low in on-time arrivals: CMA CGM at 30%, Cosco at 18%, Hapag-Lloyd at 45% and Yang Ming at 4%.

Xeneta’s concern is the growing severity of delays, as well as their frequency. Delays consume the buffer built into contracts and inventory plans, and contingency arrangements made now may not cover the conditions a later booking encounters. The difference between the highest and lowest carrier reliability narrowed from 45 percentage points in August to 43 in September. Yang Ming’s 4% pulled down the low end, while Maersk dropped from 51% to 47% at the high end. The compression reflects weaker results among previous leaders rather than a recovery among the poorest performers. Shippers preparing 2027 tenders have reason to check whether carriers charging for reliability are delivering it.

Both Gemini partners have posted month-over-month declines for five months. The network’s on-time rate dropped from 70% in June to 40% in September. Weekly data show the decline continuing as typhoon-related delays accumulated: reliability slid from 62% in the first week of August to 34% in the week of 28 September. The week of 5 October was already at 28% on partial data, leaving the network without a clear floor.

Queues and berth delays complicate port planning

Africa remained the most congested region despite improving in September. Average vessel waits fell by nearly a day to 2.5 days, and 32% of vessels were waiting, unchanged from the prior month. Outside a 0.1-day reduction in Northern Europe, Africa was the only region to improve.

Southeast Asia followed with average waits of 2.0 days, edging above the Middle East, while the share of vessels waiting rose to 23%. Singapore’s daily queue nearly doubled, from 12 to 22 vessels, and average waits climbed from 1.9 to 3.1 days as the port absorbed congestion spilling over from China.

Middle East waits held at 1.9 days, with 26% of vessels waiting. Sohar and other smaller gateways continue to take on displaced cargo as pressure around the Strait of Hormuz redirects flows. Sohar was absorbing more than 180,000 displaced TEU per week, compared with 423,000 TEU previously bound for Jebel Ali.

In Northeast Asia, 30% of vessels at port were waiting. Average waits rose 0.3 days to 1.6 days as late-summer typhoons and demand before Golden Week kept space tight and yard utilization high. Chinese port queues remain a concern even where some anchorages have eased: Shanghai’s average queue fell from 101 to 86 vessels, but average wait increased from 1.9 to 2.7 days. A short wait can coexist with a long queue, and vice versa, so shippers should review both measures. Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian together still had 0.74 million TEU at anchor on 6 October. As Ningbo and Yantian waits eased, delays were showing up downstream at berths serving Europe and North America.

October capacity plans leave little room for disruption

Carriers blanked 6% of planned Far East–Europe capacity in September and 8% on Far East–North America. Both were the third-lowest monthly shares in the past 21 months. In October, announced cancellations rose to at least 17% and 13%, respectively. Those shares remain below October 2025; carriers may be keeping more ships in rotation to clear backlogs, or further cancellations may still be announced.

October’s planned Far East–Europe capacity is the highest in 22 months, while Far East–North America capacity ranks third-highest. With less capacity scheduled to be removed than in October 2025, the 4%-reliable Europe lane has limited slack to offset delays through voided sailings. Shippers in Europe and North America should allow more lead time for October bookings and ask which services carriers intend to protect from cuts.

The scorecard’s practical message is to assess each booking by service, carrier and port rotation, not congestion headlines alone. Unscheduled calls and deliberate capacity reductions also shape arrival performance and the downstream cost of a shipment. Shippers can compare port-pair, service and carrier reliability using Xeneta Ocean Schedules, which Xeneta says is updated monthly.